US-Iran Ceasefire Eases Oil Prices, Lifts Rupiah, Boosts Gold Outlook

JAKARTA, Jakartaweekly.com – A temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran over the next two weeks is expected to have a significant impact on global markets, ranging from oil prices and currency exchange rates to gold price prospects.

Market analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said the agreement, which was mediated by Pakistan, came as a surprise to market participants. According to him, the decision cannot be separated from the escalating tensions earlier, including Iran’s ability to neutralize several advanced U.S. weapons systems.

“This shows that Iran possesses sufficiently advanced military technology, which raised concerns on the U.S. side and ultimately pushed both parties toward negotiations,” he said in a statement on Wednesday, April 8, 2026.

Under the agreement, the United States is said to have accepted several points proposed by Iran, leading to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. During the ceasefire period, the global energy distribution route is expected to operate normally again.

This development has had an immediate impact on global oil prices, which had previously surged due to the conflict. “Once the Strait of Hormuz was reopened, oil prices dropped sharply,” Ibrahim noted.

In addition, the U.S. dollar index weakened, which in turn supported emerging market currencies, including the Indonesian rupiah. In today’s trading, the rupiah was reported to have strengthened by nearly 100 points.

“This appreciation is reasonable, driven by positive sentiment from easing geopolitical tensions, as well as the reopening of Middle Eastern oil export routes,” he explained.

Furthermore, Ibrahim estimates that this temporary stability could also put downward pressure on fuel prices in various countries, in line with increasing global energy supply.

On the other hand, the development has also provided a boost to global gold prices. Ibrahim projects that gold could approach the level of US$5.000 per troy ounce in the near term, with the potential to reach US$6.000 per troy ounce by the end of the year.

“Even though the rupiah is strengthening, domestic gold prices still have the potential to rise to around Rp3 million,” he said.

He added that the upward trend in gold is also driven by a shift in global investor preferences from the U.S. dollar to safe-haven assets such as gold, particularly amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

Apart from geopolitical factors, the market is also closely watching the direction of U.S. monetary policy. Ibrahim believes that a potential leadership transition at the Federal Reserve, along with the possibility of interest rate cuts, could further strengthen gold’s appeal.

“If energy prices decline and inflation stabilizes, the likelihood of interest rate cuts will increase, which would serve as a positive catalyst for gold,” he said.

Meanwhile, in the short term, the rupiah is expected to continue its strengthening trend during the ceasefire period, with Rp17.120 projected as the upper bound of its movement.

“Over these two weeks, the market is likely to remain relatively calm, providing room for a fairly significant appreciation of the rupiah,” Ibrahim concluded.