Analyst Sees Gold Rallying to Rp3.3 Million per Gram in Q2 2026 Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks

JAKARTA, Jakartaweekly.com — Market analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi projects that global gold prices could surge significantly to reach US$5,400 per troy ounce in the second quarter of 2026, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide.

Ibrahim said the anticipated rally in gold prices would likely push domestic bullion prices up to Rp3,300,000 per gram.

“Technically, in the second quarter, global gold prices are highly likely to reach US$5,400 per troy ounce, with domestic bullion prices at Rp3,300,000 per gram,” Ibrahim said in statement, Sunday, May 3, 2026.

He noted that in the latest trading session, global gold prices stood at around US$4,616 per troy ounce, while domestic bullion was priced at Rp2,796,000 per gram.

Ibrahim outlined two possible scenarios for gold prices in the coming week. First, gold may still face short-term correction, with support levels at US$4,520 and US$4,389 per troy ounce. In line with this, domestic bullion prices are projected to ease toward Rp2,750,000 per gram.

However, in a bullish scenario, global gold prices could break through resistance levels of US$4,702 to US$4,851 per troy ounce, with domestic bullion potentially rising to between Rp2,866,000 and Rp2,900,000 per gram.

Beyond gold, Ibrahim also forecast the US dollar index to trade with support at 97.00 and resistance at 102.00 next week. “This suggests a strong likelihood that the dollar index will continue to strengthen,” he said. Meanwhile, the rupiah is expected to hover around Rp17,550 per US dollar.

In the energy market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are projected to move within a range of US$92 per barrel at support and up to US$114 per barrel at resistance.

Ibrahim explained that movements across these global instruments are heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, which could potentially evolve into a broader war. Other factors such as trade tensions, US political dynamics, global central bank policies, and supply-demand balances are also contributing to market volatility.

He highlighted the conflict involving Israel in southern Lebanon, as well as the potential escalation between the United States and Iran, as key catalysts for gold price movements.

“If an open war breaks out, global gold prices could spike sharply,” he said.

On the other hand, a significant rise in crude oil prices could prompt global central banks to raise interest rates, which may weigh on gold prices in the short term.

Nevertheless, Ibrahim views the current correction in gold prices as an accumulation opportunity for investors.

“In the medium to long term, bullion prices are still on an upward trajectory,” he added.

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