Antam Gold Prices Forecast to Trade Between Rp2.44 million and Rp2.74 million

JAKARTA, Jakartaweekly.com—Indonesia’s Antam gold prices are forecast to trade between Rp2.44 million and Rp2.74 million per gram, driven by geopolitical tensions, global trade disputes, and expectations surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy.

According to Ibrahim Assuabi, Director of PT Traze Andalan Futures, global gold prices could rise when trading resumes on Monday, potentially lifting domestic bullion prices.

Last week, Antam gold closed at Rp2,612,000 per gram, while spot gold settled at US$4,052 per troy ounce. Should prices decline, global gold is expected to find initial support at US$3,968 per troy ounce, followed by a second support level at US$3,871. Domestically, Antam gold prices are projected to ease to Rp2,592,000 per gram, with a second support level at Rp2,440,000. 

“If global gold prices surge on Monday, the first resistance level is projected at US$4,148 per troy ounce, while Indonesia’s precious metal price could reach Rp2,628,530 per gram. Should the rally continue, the second resistance level would be US$4,240 per troy ounce, with domestic gold potentially climbing to Rp2,740,000 per gram,” Ibrahim said on Sunday, July 26, 2026. 

Geopolitical risks could drive gold higher

Ibrahim believes the potential rally in gold prices is supported by expectations of a stronger US dollar index (DXY) and escalating geopolitical tensions. 

Although the United States has temporarily suspended its airstrikes and Iran has exercised restraint, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Tensions intensified after Yemen’s Houthi movement, an ally of Iran, launched an attack on Abha Airport in Saudi Arabia. In addition, Ukraine reportedly attacked an Iranian vessel carrying weapons in the Caspian Sea. 

“Ukraine’s involvement has further escalated the conflict, increasing the risk that the war could spread,” Ibrahim said. 

He expects these developments to push crude oil prices higher, leading to increased gasoline prices in the United States. Rising fuel costs could prompt Washington to avoid further military escalation due to concerns over accelerating inflation, particularly ahead of the U.S. midterm elections in November, where higher inflation could become a political issue. 

Trade tariffs and Fed policy remain in focus

Adding to market uncertainty, the United States has officially imposed an additional 10-12,5% import tariff on goods from 60 trading partners, a move that could further intensify global trade tensions. 

Given these developments, Ibrahim expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated, or even raise them further, at its upcoming policy meeting. Persistent increases in oil prices could fuel inflationary pressures reinforcing the case for tighter monetary policy. 

“If high interest rates are maintained, the U.S. Dollar Index will likely strengthen, especially as geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea continue to drive crude oil prices higher. This could encourage the Fed to keep interest rates high or even raise them further, and that’s what the market is worried about,” he said. 

The U.S. Dollar Index ended last week at 101.47. Ibrahim expects the index to trade within a range of 100.40 as support and 102.40 as resistance over the coming week. 

Meanwhile, the Indonesian rupiah is expected to weaken beyond Rp18,000 per U.S. dollar, which could slow any decline in domestic precious metal prices despite potential fluctuations in the global gold market. 

According to Ibrahim, the rupiah’s weakness is mainly driven by surging demand for U.S. dollars to finance oil imports, coupled with seasonal demand related to dividend payments. 

For reference, Indonesia’s 2026 state budget (APBN) assumes Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) of US$70 per barrel. However, as of June 2026, the realized ICP had already reached US$83.45 per barrel, reflecting significantly higher global oil prices.