Purbaya’s Replacement Raises Fiscal Uncertainty, May Pressure IHSG and Rupiah

JAKARTA, Jakartaweekly.com—The sudden replacement of Finance Minister Purbaya Yudi Sadewa could increase fiscal uncertainty and put pressure on Indonesia’s financial markets, an analyst said.

Economic, currency, and commodities analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi said the immediate impact could be felt in the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) and the rupiah exchange rate, particularly as foreign investors assess the continuity of the government’s fiscal policies following the change in finance minister.

“This reshuffle happened suddenly, and it will certainly affect the IHSG,” Ibrahim said Monday, September 14, 2026.

He expects pressure on the IHSG and rupiah to continue into the next trading session. According to Ibrahim, the sentiment is primarily driven by market concerns over the direction of the government’s budget policies following Purbaya Yudi Sadewa’s departure as finance minister.

“The main trigger is fiscal uncertainty,” he said.

Ibrahim said the sudden change in finance minister could raise concerns among foreign investors about the continuity of the government’s fiscal policies. The issue has drawn attention as several previous budget assumptions and policies have undergone changes.

He cited a revision in the projected budget deficit from 2.68% to 2.86%. The crude oil price assumption was also raised from US$70 to US$80 per barrel.

“Only yesterday, Purbaya finalized the budget, and there were also changes in the second half of the year,” Ibrahim said.

According to him, changes to several fiscal assumptions have made the direction of budget policy increasingly important to market participants. Under such circumstances, the change in finance minister could add to uncertainty over fiscal policy in the coming period.

MBG Budget Comes Under Scrutiny

Ibrahim also highlighted Purbaya’s position on the budget allocation for the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program and the Red and White Cooperatives (Koperasi Merah Putih).

According to Ibrahim, Purbaya had previously criticized the size of the budget allocation for the program and pushed for spending to be reduced. He said the move was aimed at preventing the budget deficit from widening further.

“To prevent the budget deficit from widening, the MBG budget would have to be kept below Rp200 trillion,” he said.

Ibrahim said the policy could potentially lead to differences of opinion with parties supporting the MBG program and seeking to maintain its budget allocation.

He suggested that conflicting interests over budget policy could be one of the factors behind Purbaya’s replacement. However, Ibrahim stressed that this was his own analysis of the situation.

“There will likely be a lot of criticism from those in the government who support the program and those who want the MBG budget to remain unchanged rather than be reduced,” Ibrahim said.

At the same time, Ibrahim said Purbaya had been known during his tenure as finance minister for pursuing reforms within the Ministry of Finance, including in the tax and customs sectors.

He said such reform efforts could face resistance from various groups with vested interests.

“In Indonesia, it is very difficult for a minister who is clean to avoid having many enemies,” Ibrahim said.

According to Ibrahim, the situation also needs to be viewed in the broader context of political and competing interests. For financial markets, however, the immediate concern is how the government will ensure continuity in fiscal policy following the change in finance minister.

“The sudden replacement of Finance Minister Purbaya Yudi Sadewa has raised concerns among market participants, particularly foreign investors, about the continuity of the government’s budget policies going forward,” he said.

Ibrahim expects markets to continue monitoring developments following the reshuffle, particularly foreign investor reactions to the direction of fiscal policy and the government’s ability to maintain budget credibility.