Unused Data Quota Rules May Pressure Telecom Margins in Short Term

JAKARTA, Jakartaweekly.com — Telecommunications companies’ revenues could come under pressure after the Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) prohibited operators from forfeiting customers’ unused internet data quotas and required them to provide several options to protect remaining data allowances.

The Ministry of Communication and Digital Affairs (Komdigi) recently issued Ministerial Circular Letter No. 4 of 2026 concerning the Obligation to Provide Service Options and Protect Remaining Data Quotas.

Under the circular, mobile operators are prohibited from eliminating customers’ unused internet data quotas that have already been paid for. Operators are also prohibited from charging customers additional fees to retain or use the remaining quota.

Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, M. Nafan Aji Gusta, said the Komdigi circular on the protection of unused internet data quotas could put pressure on operators’ monetization in the short term.

Nevertheless, he said the policy would not necessarily have a negative impact on the telecommunications industry’s fundamentals over the long term.

“With the provision that customers’ remaining internet data quotas can no longer simply expire, operators such as TLKM and EXCL, as well as other listed telecommunications companies, could potentially lose part of the revenue previously generated from unused data quotas,” Nafan told Jakartaweekly.com on Monday, August 31, 2026.

He said the impact could be reflected in average revenue per user (ARPU) and EBITDA margins, as operators would remain obligated to provide customers with the benefits of data quotas they have already purchased.

However, the impact on revenue is expected to be limited if operators are able to adjust pricing, redesign their packages, improve customer segmentation, and drive monetization through data consumption and digital services.

As a result, Nafan said operators’ core strategy should shift from simply selling data volume toward selling the value and experience associated with data usage.

He said operators could redesign packages with measured rollover schemes, introduce segmentation based on consumption patterns, strengthen digital-service bundling, and leverage data analytics to more accurately project customer needs.

At the same time, he added, companies need to improve network efficiency and optimize capital expenditure so that higher network utilization resulting from the rollover policy does not place excessive pressure on operating costs.

Therefore, Nafan views the circular more appropriately as a short-term risk to operators’ margins rather than a threat to the sustainability of their businesses.

“In the medium to long term, operators that are able to implement repricing, improve network efficiency, segment customers, and monetize their digital ecosystems could actually turn this policy into an opportunity to strengthen customer loyalty,” he said.

From an investment perspective, Nafan considers TLKM to be relatively the most defensive. Meanwhile, EXCL and other telecommunications stocks warrant closer monitoring, particularly in terms of ARPU trends, customer churn, network utilization, and EBITDA margins following the implementation of the policy.

“Among listed companies, I see TLKM as relatively more defensive because Telkomsel has sufficient business scale, a large customer base, strong network quality, and pricing power to adapt to regulatory changes,” Nafan added.

Meanwhile, operators such as EXCL and other players need to monitor the impact more closely, particularly if their business models are more dependent on competitively priced packages and customer volume.

Nevertheless, Nafan does not see any operator as automatically becoming the most affected by the policy, as the regulation applies across the industry.

Companies with a loyal customer base, efficient networks, robust IT systems, and the ability to implement segmentation and bundling are expected to adapt more quickly.

Conversely, operators that have traditionally relied on large data packages with short validity periods could face greater margin pressure, as the benefits of data that previously went unused must now remain available to customers.

Nafan recommends EXCL shares with a target price of Rp3,130 and TLKM shares with a target price of Rp3,030.

ATSI Yet to Comment on Ban on Forfeiting Unused Internet Data

Separately, the Indonesian Telecommunications Association (ATSI) has yet to issue a response regarding the Komdigi circular.

ATSI Executive Director Marwan O. Baasir said the association was still conducting internal discussions regarding the policy.

“We are still discussing the matter internally and are not yet in a position to provide a response,” Marwan told Jakartaweekly.com on Monday, August 31.

Meanwhile, in a statement, Minister of Communication and Digital Affairs Meutya Hafid said Komdigi had set September 28, 2026, as the deadline for operators to submit compliance reports to the ministry.

Operators are also required to submit monthly updates on their compliance, she said.

She explained that the reports form part of Komdigi’s mechanism for monitoring operators’ compliance with provisions concerning the protection of remaining data quotas and the provision of service options for customers.

“Through this Circular Letter, Komdigi is ensuring that the national telecommunications sector continues to develop while maintaining the interests and protection of the public’s rights as an important part of the national digital ecosystem,” she said.

She added that through the circular, Komdigi requires mobile operators not to delete customers’ internet data quotas that have already been paid for. Operators are also prohibited from charging additional fees to retain or use the remaining quota.

According to Meutya, paid data quotas constitute customers’ rights, meaning that unused portions of those quotas cannot simply expire.

“And operators may not impose additional charges to retain that quota,” she said.

As a follow-up to a ruling by the Constitutional Court (MK), the circular also requires operators to provide service options that allow customers to choose mechanisms based on their individual needs.

The options include data accumulation (rollover), non-accumulation (non-rollover), validity-period extensions, transfer of benefits, refunds, and other forms of protection that do not disadvantage customers.