Why Turkiye Went Home Early From The 2026 World Cup?

JAKARTA, Jakartaweekly.com— The group stage of the 2026 World Cup has come to a close. There are not many surprises in the group stage; most of your favorite teams are topping their group, while the dark horses are also through to the next round. None of the contenders failed to go through to the round of 32, except Turkiye.

Vincenzo Montella’s side has a good thing going before the World Cup. They only lost once in their last 10 matches, forced Spain into a 2-2 draw, and even demolished Bulgaria (6-1).

2026 may be their first World Cup since 2002, but last time they competed in the biggest stage of football, Ay-Yıldızlılar -Turkiye’s nickname- finished third overall. Opta Supercomputer gave them 7% chance of advancing to the final of the 2026 World Cup. They have better than Egypt (1.3%), Sweden (1.8%), Japan, and the USA (3.3%). Yet Turkiye is the only team to fail to qualify from the group stage while the others go through.

How could this be?

Montella acknowledged his tactical mistake after Turkiye lost the opening match against Australia (0-2). “We knew that they would sit back, wait for an opportunity to launch a counterattack. And still we conceded two goals. In tactical terms, that was unexpected,” he said.

Despite the poor result, the former Italian national team striker saw many positives in the defeat. Hakan Calhanoglu and co then approached the second match, against Paraguay, the same way. The result is arguably worse than the first defeat. Turkiye conceded early and couldn’t get the equalizer until the final whistle was blown.

Of 32 shooting attempts against Paraguay, only five are on target. Not to mention that they played against 10 men for the whole second half after Paraguay’s Miguel Almiron was sent off at the end of the first 45.

After 62 shots within two matches, Turkiye scored zero goals, suffered a back-to-back defeat, and was officially out of the 2026 World Cup. They did manage to grab a win in their last match. Beating the host nation, USA, 3-2. But their fate was already sealed before that game.

To be fair, Turkiye didn’t approach the USA game differently from their previous ones. The only difference is the opponent. The USA, which already qualified for the round of 32 before the game, has nothing to lose against Turkiye. They changed their lineup significantly and are still able to play the same way. An open and attacking-minded football.

For once, Turkiye can finally capitalize on its opponent’s approach and score some goals. “We knew what we’re capable of. We can finally go back to our country with a little more pride,” Turkish and Real Madrid midfielder, Arda Guler, said after the USA game. Montella also backed the players, stating, “They’re the future of football”.

With players like Guler, Kenan Yildiz (Juventus), and Can Uzun (Eintracht Frankfurt), no one is questioning the quality of Turkiye. The football community agrees with Montella. They’re the future of football. That’s why they’re expected to go through to the knockout stage. Not failing at the bottom of the group stage.

But that expectation was ruined. Throughout the group stage, Guler, Yildiz, Uzun, and the others have shown Turkiye’s biggest flaw: They’re easily frustrated when facing an opponent with a low-block approach. That frustration impacts the quality of their chances, minimizing the conversion rate.

Having too many quality players in the second line is a good problem to have. It means there are many players who can endanger the opponent’s goals. Frankly, in football, creating and converting are two different things.

The Lack of Number 9 Options

Kenan Yildiz xG is lower than Scott McTominay in the 2025/26 season of Serie A | Credit Photo: Turkish Football Federation (tff.org)

According to the 2025/26 season stats, Guler created the most chances for Real Madrid (70) in La Liga. But he is only 5th in the expected goal (xG) category. Lower than Jude Bellingham. Yildiz created the most chances for Juventus (74) in Serie A, the second-best in xG for the Old Lady, but no better than Scott McTominay (Napoli), Riccardo Orsolini (Bologna), or Nico Paz (Como).

The same thing can be said for most of Turkiye’s backbone, like Orkun Kokcu or Baris Yilmaz. They’re great at creating chances; their clubs rely on them heavily for that. But finishing those chances usually is someone else’s job. Turkiye, while having all the creators they needed, has no finisher on their team.

Football may evolve into a more fluid game. Especially in the last decade, a true number nine, a fox-in-the-box striker, isn’t really necessary anymore.

The world has acknowledged Lionel Messi as the greatest of all time (sorry, Cristiano’s fans) while he was playing as a “false nine”. Arsenal managed to win the Premier League with midfielders like Kai Havertz and Mikel Merino often occupying the top of the line. It all creates this illusion that a true striker isn’t needed anymore.

Often forgetting that Messi’s conversion rate is off the charts, or how Arsenal need to buy a true number nine like Victor Gyokeres, before clinching their first title in 22 years.

Trusting a winger, Karem Arturkoglu, up front could show how Montella also lives in that illusion. While forgetting the fact that Arturkoglu is not even Fenerbahce’s best finisher.

Or the most probable reason is the lack of a true striker at Montella’s disposal. There are six different forwards he brought to the 2026 World Cup, and only Porto’s Deniz Gul is a real striker.

The Future Strikers

Bertug Yildirim omitted from the World Cup squad | Credit Photo: Istanbul Basaksehir’s official site (ibfk.com.tr)

Turkiye usually has someone that they can rely on as a striker. A player like Umut Bulut, Mevlut Erdinc, and Burak Yilmaz, just to name a few. Now, they have none. There’s Deniz Undav, who already scored three goals in the 2026 World Cup, playing for Germany. Undav rejected the opportunity to represent Turkiye, citing political reasons. “I’m Kurdish,” he said, distancing himself Turkiye.

There is also Basaksehir’s Bertug Yildirim, who was the most productive Turkish striker in Super Lig (7 goals) despite lacking playing time (554 minutes). But he was omitted from the final squad. Montella opted for players with an established reputation rather than someone who is still trying to reach the top, like the 23-year-old striker.

There is also a 19-year-old Mustafa Hekimoglu, dubbed as “the next Robert Lewandowski”, but he needs more time to develop his skills and reputation.

Turkiye’s failure to qualify from the group stage could be read as a worrying sign. They may have the talents needed, but there are so many golden generations that never reach their promise before them.

On the other hand, they could also learn from this failure. This failure could be the trigger they need to develop another reliable striker as soon as possible. Maybe when the next major tournament comes around, Bertug Yildirim and Mustafa Hekimoglu are ready to be the finishers.

Cause if there is one thing that Turkiye can learn from only scoring three goals from 71 shots, they’re in dire need of a finisher. They can create as many big chances as Brazil and France in the group stage (12). Third best in terms of average possession and touches in the opponent’s box, but the lack of quality in finishing made them go home early nonetheless.