Dollar Index and Oil Prices Expected to Strengthen, While Gold Prices Faces Pressure

JAKARTA, Jakartaweekly.com–Ibrahim Assuaibi, Director of Traze Andalan Futures, predicts that the dollar index (DXY) will strengthen this week, followed by WTI and Brent crude oil prices, while gold prices are expected to come under pressure.

Ibrahim expects geopolitical tensions to remain elevated. The conflict in Estern Europe is expected to continue, particularly as Iran remains determined to defend its territories currently controlled by Russia. Meanwhile, Russia is expected to continue carrying out sporadic attacks on major cities across Ukraine.

“Therefore, the war is likely to continue, with Ukraine targeting regions that produce oil and natural gas,” Ibrahim said on Sunday, September 13, 2026.

In the Middle East, tensions between the United States and Iran have also escalated. Iran has claimed to have attacked 10 vessels around the Strait of Hormuz, making it one of the largest waves of attacks on ships since the war began.

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has also become increasingly limited. Only around seven to 10 vessels are currently able to transit the strait, compared with approximately 125 vessels per day before the war between the two countries began.

“We also saw Donald Trump himself say on Sunday that the war will end after the U.S. midterm elections, possibly in December. What does that mean? It means the U.S.-Iran war is likely to continue for some time,” Ibrahim said.

Meanwhile, on September 10–11, 2026, Iran-backed Houthi forces reportedly captured several strategic islands around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and expanded their control along Yemen’s Red Sea coast.

“This situation will cause global oil prices to continue strengthening significantly,” Ibrahim said.

Ibrahim predicts that WTI crude oil could return above US$100 per barrel, while Brent crude could rise above US$105 per barrel. He forecasts WTI crude oil to trade within a range of US$91.60 to US$103.50 per barrel this week.

Meanwhile, political dynamics in the United States have also intensified ahead of the midterm elections. Trump has made a controversial campaign statement about providing US$5,000 to each U.S. resident if Republicans win and retain control of Congress.

The proposal has been criticized as unrealistic given the United States’ high level of debt. Meanwhile, one-year inflation expectations have risen to 4.6%, indicating that the U.S. Federal Reserve could potentially raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).

“This rate hike is likely to put downward pressure on global gold prices,” he said.

On the other hand, China’s central bank continues to increase its gold reserves. According to World Gold Council data, the People’s Bank of China purchased 20 tons of gold. Meanwhile, global central banks are expected to continue increasing their gold reserves significantly.

Ibrahim also noted a current trend of European countries moving their gold reserves from the United States to the United Kingdom. For example, the Netherlands moved 86 tons of gold from the U.S. and Canada to London amid rising global uncertainty.

For the week ahead, Ibrahim predicts that global gold prices will remain highly volatile, trading within a range of US$4,102 to US$4,650 per troy ounce. Meanwhile, domestic gold prices are expected to trade between Rp2.45 million and Rp2.75 million per gram.

However, Ibrahim expects the decline in domestic gold prices to be limited by a weaker Indonesian rupiah. He forecasts the rupiah to weaken to around Rp17,850 per U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, the DXY index is expected to trade within a range of 90.30 to 100.20.