JCI Falls 3.28% as Rupiah, US Yields and Oil Prices Weigh on Sentiment

JAKARTA, Jakartaweekly.com—The Indonesia Stock Exchange Composite Index (JCI) fell 3.28% over the past week. At the market close on October 2, 2026, the JCI stood at 6,036.88. Analyst sees Rupiah, US Yields, and oil prices weigh on sentiment. 

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Senior Analyst Nafan Aji Gusta explained that the JCI had been under pressure throughout September. However, its movement toward the end of last week showed an attempt to rebound.

“Hope for the JCI to turn bullish remains open, but as of October 2, 2026, I see the process more likely beginning with stabilization and a technical rebound, rather than an immediate shift into a strong bullish trend,” Nafan told Jakarta Weekly on Saturday, October 3, 2026.

The JCI fell 7.95% throughout September, ending the month at 6,071. The pressure continued on October 1, 2026, when the index fell to 6,009.50. On October 2, 2026, the JCI began attempting to rebound, although bearish momentum remained dominant from a technical perspective.

Nafan also explained that the JCI remained in the red zone throughout the past week due to pressure from several global, domestic, and technical factors. He said rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar were among the biggest sources of pressure.

The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly reached around 5.3%, making dollar-denominated assets relatively more attractive and putting pressure on emerging market assets, including the rupiah and Indonesian stocks. On October 2, Asian markets also remained cautious ahead of US employment data, as stronger-than-expected data could once again raise expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.

Meanwhile, the rupiah’s weakening toward or even beyond Rp18,000 per US dollar increased investors’ risk-off sentiment. The rupiah briefly breached the Rp18,000 level on September 29, partly due to higher global yields, a stronger dollar, and a surge in oil prices. This prompted foreign investors to reduce their exposure to domestic assets.

Foreign net selling also continued. On October 1, foreign investors recorded net selling of around Rp240.4 billion in the regular market, bringing cumulative foreign net selling throughout 2026 to around Rp107.4 trillion. Selling pressure was particularly visible in several large-cap stocks, including BMRI, GOTO, BBRI, MDKA, and BBCA.

High oil prices and geopolitical risks in the Middle East also weighed on sentiment. Brent crude remained around US$103 per barrel, raising concerns about imported inflation and pressure on Indonesia’s external balance. At the same time, geopolitical tensions prompted global investors to take a more defensive stance.

Domestic inflation increased to 3.28% year-on-year in September from 3.19% in August. The rise in inflation came as the rupiah weakened and energy prices remained high, making the market more cautious about the room for further monetary easing.

“Domestic uncertainty following the cabinet reshuffle has also prompted investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach,” he said.

Last, the continued impact of the change in the minimum stock price from Rp50 to Rp1 was still being felt, particularly among stocks that had previously been stuck at low price levels. The change has opened up room for lower price discovery and triggered volatility in several stocks, although it was not the only factor behind the JCI’s decline.

Nafan explained that the JCI could turn bullish with a more sustainable upward movement if several conditions are met. These include the rupiah stabilizing after briefly breaching Rp18,000 per US dollar, US Treasury yields easing, foreign net selling declining and turning into net buying, and investor confidence in the Indonesian market recovering.

“Especially following the period of pressure caused by MSCI-related issues, changes to the minimum stock price rules, and domestic uncertainty,” he said.

On the other hand, domestic fundamentals are not entirely negative. Indonesia recorded a trade surplus of US$3.55 billion in August, significantly above market expectations, although some economists said the surplus does not yet fully reflect a structural improvement because it was supported by lower-than-expected imports. In addition, domestic liquidity continued to receive support from Bank Indonesia’s increased purchases of government securities (SBN) in the secondary market in September.

Nafan predicts that the 6,000–6,200 range will serve as a consolidation zone. If the JCI manages to break through the 6,185–6,240 resistance area, it would provide an early confirmation of a technical rebound.