JCI Opens Lower, Market Awaits BI’s Response to Rupiah Pressure & Global Liquidit

JAKARTA, Jakartaweekly.com–The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI), or IHSG, opened lower at the start of the week on Monday, September 21, 2026. At 10:12 a.m. local time, the JCI was down 0.38% at 6,415.40.

Senior Market Analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Nafan Aji Gusta explained that the main market sentiment is being driven by the direction of the Fed’s policy, developments in US Treasury yields, and the US dollar.

“Given that 16 of the 18 Fed officials still project at least one more rate hike in 2026,” Nafan told Jakarta Weekly on Monday, September 21, 2026.

Domestically, investors will be watching Bank Indonesia’s (BI) Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) on September 22–23, particularly how BI responds to pressure on the rupiah and global liquidity conditions.

In addition, the movement of the rupiah, foreign fund flows, still-high oil prices, and geopolitical developments will be key factors. Oil prices above USD100 per barrel could heighten inflation concerns and limit room for monetary easing.

Meanwhile, the FTSE rebalancing agenda and the resumption of short-selling transactions could also increase volatility in certain stocks.

Furthermore, Nafan explained that, from a technical perspective, the JCI remains in a recovery phase following the formation of the “wave [iv]” pattern. The bullish structure remains intact.

Based on technical indicators, the MA20 and MA60 are still showing a positive crossover, supported by higher trading volume. However, the Stochastics K_D and RSI continue to show negative signals. The JCI still has room for a technical rebound if it holds above the 6,371–6,290 support area, with the nearest resistance at 6,566–6,636.

However, the upside is expected to remain limited as investors monitor global and domestic monetary policy developments, particularly after the Fed raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%.