Analyst Sees Strategic Potential in Jhonlin’s 30% Bayan (BYAN) Stake

JAKARTA, Jakartaweekly.com—PT Jhonlin Baratama’s plan to acquire around a 30% stake in PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN) could potentially strengthen vertical synergies in the mining and energy sectors.

Mirae Asset Sekuritas Senior Market Analyst Nafan Aji Gusta said the potential strengthening of synergies could stem from Jhonlin’s experience in mining contracting, mining services and equipment.

“Meanwhile, BYAN operates an integrated coal mining business,” Nafan told Jakarta Weekly on Friday (Sept. 18, 2026).

He said the combination of the two companies’ respective experience and businesses could create synergies in mining services, operational efficiency, logistics, infrastructure, asset development and mining supply chains.

However, Nafan said the realization of these synergies would depend on the transaction structure and how the two parties implement their cooperation after the transaction is completed. This is because the agreement announced so far remains conditional.

Nevertheless, he said investors could view Jhonlin’s entry as potentially positive due to the resulting change in BYAN’s shareholder structure and the potential for business synergies.

Such potential could become more evident if the transaction ultimately leads to cost efficiencies, asset optimization and a stronger supply chain.

On the other hand, he said investors also need to monitor the transaction’s financing structure, changes in ownership and control, as well as their potential impact on BYAN’s strategic policies.

“Therefore, the key catalyst is not simply who the new shareholder is, but whether the change in ownership can actually improve productivity and create additional value for BYAN over the medium to long term,” Nafan said.

Coal Industry Outlook

Nafan said the Jhonlin-BYAN transaction should also be viewed in the context of the long-term outlook for the coal industry.

According to him, the coal sector still has opportunities as demand from Asia remains relatively strong. One example is coal imports by India’s power sector, which surged 85.6% year-on-year in August 2026. Currently, around 80% of India’s coal imports come from Indonesia.

However, the coal industry also faces several challenges, including coal price normalization, domestic production quota policies, the energy transition and growing renewable energy capacity.

“Jhonlin’s entry into BYAN can be viewed as an effort to strengthen the company’s position and improve efficiency as the commodity cycle becomes increasingly dynamic,” Nafan said.

He added that the next factors investors should monitor include the final transaction price, the source of acquisition financing, production developments and RKAB approvals, average coal selling prices, and the realization of operational synergies once the transaction becomes effective.

Estimated Acquisition Value

The value of the acquisition has not yet been disclosed. Therefore, BYAN’s market price can serve as an initial reference point for estimating the value of the stake to be transferred.

At the close of trading on Sept. 17, 2026, BYAN shares stood at Rp11,525 per share. Assuming approximately 10 billion shares are transferred, the stake would be valued at around Rp115.25 trillion based on the prevailing market price.

However, Nafan cautioned that the price of a block transaction involving a 30% stake does not necessarily have to match the prevailing market price.

The transaction price may be influenced by several factors, including the size of the transaction, share liquidity, control considerations and negotiations between the buyer and sellers.

“Therefore, investors should not immediately assume that Rp115.25 trillion is the final transaction value. The actual price will be an important indicator of whether the acquisition is conducted at a premium or discount to the market price,” Nafan said.